Sunday, 25 July 2010

On Life After Oil

My grandpa did tell me about this. I still remember, we were at either a beach here in Costa Rica, or Granada, Nicaragua. We were having those brilliant philosophical discussions one usually has with one's grandparents. He said to me, plain and clear, and in these exact words: "I do think that humanity will run out of petrol during your lifetime" "But when will that happen?", I replied. I was incredibly scared. "Perhaps when you're 60 years old [i.e. around 2050]".

My ohpa was an incredibly smart guy, I knew that. But my admiration for him never ceases to increase. After watching this documentary called "A Crude Awakening: The Oil Crash"
( ), I can now see that he was entirely right. This a jaw-dropping, mind-opening film. It provides a wide arrange of opinions on the oil crash, a crash that will occur around 2030-2050. (And yes, even a Republican talks about the oil crash and how it will happen.) It says how the oil production peaked in the US a loooong time ago in the 1930s, and how the world's oil production peaked in 2005.

It is a marvellous documentary, and everyone, including you metal-heads, needs,and should, watch it.

Oil will be nothing more than a small epoch in humankind, that's for sure. But will humankind manage to live without it after it's gone?

The answer: No.

Why? Simply look at these facts:

Current world population: 6.4 billion people.
People in a world without oil? 2 billion (at the most).

The question is, which of those billion people will live?

For more information please visit this web-site, which is filled with all the relevant data you could ever imagine on oil and how it will change the way mankind lives:

"Are We 'Running Out'? I Thought
There Was 40 Years of the Stuff Left"

Oil will not just "run out" because all oil production follows a bell curve. This is true whether we're talking about an individual field, a country, or on the planet as a whole.

Oil is increasingly plentiful on the upslope of the bell curve, increasingly scarce and expensive on the down slope. The peak of the curve coincides with the point at which the endowment of oil has been 50 percent depleted. Once the peak is passed, oil production begins to go down while cost begins to go up.

In practical and considerably oversimplified terms, this means that if 2005 was the year of global Peak Oil, worldwide oil production in the year 2030 will be the same as it was in 1980. However, the world’s population in 2030 will be both much larger (approximately twice) and much more industrialized (oil-dependent) than it was in 1980. Consequently, worldwide demand for oil will outpace worldwide production of oil by a significant margin. As a result, the price will skyrocket, oil dependant economies will crumble, and resource wars will explode.

PS: I installed a visitor counter, hopefully it'll go up, up, up!

No comments:

Post a Comment